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EU and UK have a gas deficit of approximately 94.7 billion m³ in 2022

International Business News  –  Huatai Securities issued a research report, said the EU + the United Kingdom this year, about 94.7 billion m³ of natural gas shortage, there is also the threat of Nord Stream I annual maintenance leading to cut-off, increasing the uncertainty of the European gas supply, Europe and the United States is expected to take a variety of measures to ease the gas supply tension. The bank believes that the impact path of European gas shortage on China’s machinery and equipment industry has three aspects: 1) increase the demand for LNG storage and transportation equipment; 2) Europe to accelerate the construction of clean energy; 3) impact on the global pattern of high-end machinery manufacturing industry with the advantage of European exports.

The main views of securities dealers are as follows:

Europe’s natural gas demand gap highlighted, concern about China’s high-end equipment competitive position changes

The EU expects to reduce its dependence on Russian gas by 2/3 by the end of this year and import an additional 50 billion m³ from alternative countries. Estimating Europe’s (EU + UK) gas imports to Russia at 142.1 billion m³ in 2021, there is a shortfall of about 94.7 billion m³ this year. Europe is expected to take a variety of measures to ease the gas supply crunch. The threat of supply disruptions due to the annual Nord Stream 1 overhaul adds to the uncertainty of gas supply in Europe.

Impact Path 1: Diversified gas supply and growing demand for LNG equipment

Russia accounts for 37% of Europe’s gas imports (2021), and the reduction of European pipeline gas supply to Europe will make Europe increase LNG imports to compensate for the gap, and LNG equipment demand is expected to grow. Europe may: 1) increase storage capacity construction, stockpiling U.S. LNG cargo (as of July 17, the storage rate reached 65%), is expected to boost the receiving station, FSRU and other engineering construction demand; 2) increase the demand for LNG vessels: 2022H1 LNG carrier orders increased greatly, exceeding 100; 3) increase LNG tanker: a rapid replenishment situation of traditional LNG shipping, benefiting from LNG ship order overflow; 4) accelerate gasification plant construction (European gasification plant capacity gap of about 50%). Related LNG equipment manufacturing companies are expected to benefit.

Impact path two: Europe accelerates green and low-carbon energy development

May 18, the European Commission announced the “REPowerEU” energy plan, aimed at large-scale, rapid deployment of renewable energy to get rid of dependence on Russian fossil fuels. 1) photovoltaic: the goal in 2025/2030 to achieve 320/600GW installed photovoltaic. 2021 China’s silicon material The four major segments such as silicon, modules, etc. Chinese enterprises accounted for 76%, 96%, 82% and 96%, equipment all localization, is expected to cut the European PV demand cake; 2) wind power: the goal of 2022-2026 European wind power new installed capacity or 160GW. domestic export capacity and competitive advantage of the spindle, castings, tower, gearboxes and other segments are expected to benefit from the European wind power The boom; 3) hydrogen energy: according to the European REPowerEU plan, the European green hydrogen demand 20 million tons in 2030.